Break-Even Sales Volume Planner 2025
Model contribution margins, forecast demand guardrails, and compare e-commerce platform economics before scaling spend.
Step 1 • Commercial inputs
Business assumptions
Step 2 • Scenario explorer
Break-even simulations
Stress-test price, cost, and demand shifts with forward-looking guardrails. Hover over each scenario to compare economics against your baseline.
Baseline plan
Reflects your current pricing, variable costs, and demand plan.
- Break-even units
- 332
- Profit goal units
- 484
- Contribution per order
- £26.39
- Monthly profit
- £2,326
- Runway with cash
- Self-funding
- Contribution margin £26.39/38.8%
- Break-even at 332 units (£22,576)
- Monthly profit at 420 units: £2,326
Accelerated growth
4% price lift, 8% lower COGS, and marketing efficiency gains from creative refresh.
- Break-even units
- 296
- Profit goal units
- 421
- Contribution per order
- £31.99
- Monthly profit
- £6,415
- Runway with cash
- Self-funding
- Contribution margin £31.99/45.2%
- Break-even at 296 units (£20,933)
- Monthly profit at 496 units: £6,415
Adjustments
- • Includes a 4.0% price adjustment.
- • COGS adjusted by 8.0% to reflect supplier negotiations.
- • 10.0% lower marketing spend/order
- • Demand shift of 18.0% applied to volume forecasts.
Guardrail scenario
8% discounting, higher marketing costs, and 20% slower demand to pressure test resiliency.
- Break-even units
- 443
- Profit goal units
- 655
- Contribution per order
- £18.86
- Monthly profit
- -£2,001
- Runway with cash
- 27.5 months
- Contribution margin £18.86/30.2%
- Break-even at 443 units (£27,714)
- Monthly profit at 336 units: -£2,001
Adjustments
- • Models a 8.0% promotional discount.
- • COGS adjusted by -3.0% to reflect supplier negotiations.
- • 15.0% higher marketing spend/order
- • Demand shift of -20.0% applied to volume forecasts.
Platform economics
Marketplace fee comparison
Evaluate how platform pricing and fees shift your break-even and contribution. Use this to negotiate rates or justify migration.
Shopify Advanced
Lower processing fees, built-in automation, ideal for scaling DTC brands.
332 break-even units
38.8% margin • Fees/order £2.11
£26.39 contribution per order
Shopify Core
Balanced pricing with accessible analytics and marketplace integrations.
329 break-even units
38.3% margin • Fees/order £2.45
£26.05 contribution per order
BigCommerce Pro
No transaction fees, native B2B features, strong catalogue management.
330 break-even units
39.3% margin • Fees/order £1.77
£26.73 contribution per order
WooCommerce + Stripe
Self-hosted flexibility with plugin costs; Stripe fees apply on every order.
332 break-even units
37.9% margin • Fees/order £2.72
£25.78 contribution per order
Pricing sensitivity
±5% experiment- 5% discount
- 380 units
- 5% price lift
- 296 units
- -1pt margin impact
- 341 units
- +1pt margin benefit
- 324 units
Use this to brief pricing, merchandising, and retention teams on the customer response required to hold margin.
Guardrail checklist
Demand cushion
0 units
Units of demand you can lose before hitting guardrail break-even.
Current run-rate gap
On target
Difference between current volume and baseline break-even target.
Peak season target
572 units
Required units in a high season month assuming 18.0% lift.
Cash coverage
27.5 months
Cash runway if operating at guardrail economics with £55,000 reserves.
Step 3 • Action plan
Insights & next actions
Summarise the levers that have the highest impact on improving break-even resilience and funding growth experiments.
Gross margin trails segment medians by 9.2%. Review supplier and fulfilment contracts.
At 420 orders, you would generate £2,326 per month under the baseline.
Accelerated growth scenario delivers £4,089 incremental profit with stronger pricing and cost controls.
Frequently asked questions
How do I keep contribution margin stable while scaling?
Lock in supplier and fulfilment contracts for 6-12 months, review payment processing tiers quarterly, and maintain a retargeting budget cap aligned with your payback window. Scenario planning helps you see the tolerance bands.
What volume should I target before launching a new channel?
Use the guardrail scenario to understand the minimum viable volume that still protects runway. Aim to exceed that target by 20-30% before committing to additional marketing or wholesale expansion.
How accurate are the benchmarks?
Benchmarks blend public filings, marketplace data, and operator surveys from 2023-2024. Treat them as directional reference points and adapt them to your brand mix and cohort behaviour.
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Disclaimer
This model offers directional planning guidance. Validate assumptions with your finance and revenue operations teams before committing budget. Performance will vary with pricing tests, retention programmes, and acquisition efficiency. Some links are affiliate links; read our affiliate disclosure for full details.