Recurring Revenue & Churn Simulator 2025
Model retention, billing recovery, and expansion programmes side-by-side. Compare how upgrades to your customer success motion unlock higher NRR, faster CAC payback, and predictable ARR.
Plan retention and growth motions
Stress-test scenarios before your next board or planning cycle. Tune churn, expansion, and billing recovery to see how customer success investments translate into ARR and cash flow resilience.
Annual revenue lift
£168,683
Net churn delta
2.47% points
Scenario comparison
Contrast status quo vs upside vs guardrail.
Current trajectory
Status quo retention with existing customer success coverage and billing cadence.
- Recover £1,123 in failed renewals via better billing ops
- Current CAC payback 6 months
- NRR trails top quartile 122% benchmark
Retention + expansion play
Improve recovery, launch usage-based upsells, and layer executive business reviews.
- Lift NRR to 112.6% with +6 pts expansion and fewer downgrades
- Reduce CAC payback to 5 months via annual upgrades
- Recover 65% of failed payments within 7 days
Risk-adjusted guardrail
Downside case if expansion lags and recovery improvements underperform.
- Prioritise involuntary recovery workflows to protect baseline MRR.
- Monitor downgrade triggers—usage drop >25% or seat reductions.
- Trim CAC spend if payback stretches past 18 months to conserve runway.
KPI scoreboard vs benchmark
NRR vs segment
112.6%
Median 108.0% · Top quartile 122.0%
Net churn vs baseline
1.88%
Current 4.36%
Expansion vs downgrades
+11.0% / -4.0%
Bench expansion 12.0% · Downgrades 3.5%
Programme ROI
243.3%
Based on incremental retained revenue minus programme spend.
High-growth B2B SaaS targets 115-125% NRR with churn below 3% per month.
Quick retention memo
- Focus on involuntary recovery to salvage £1,123 of at-risk MRR.
- Upsell programme drives NRR to 112.6% versus segment median 108.0%.
- CAC payback improves to 5.3 months with annual conversions.
- Guardrail scenario retains £57,798 MRR even with slower expansion.
Customer success coverage
Benchmark your headcount and coverage model against the ARR you support. Iterate towards the recommended tier to unlock the retention uplift in the model.
Current
High-touch
6 CSMs • £720,000 ARR supported
Recommended
High-touch
8 CSMs • £810,841 ARR capacity
All customers
≈ £0.00 ARR • 1 CSMs
Low-touch pooled team
≈ £250,000 ARR • 3 CSMs
Hybrid pooled + named
≈ £750,000 ARR • 6 CSMs
Named strategic pod
≈ £1,500,000 ARR • 10 CSMs
Segment playbook
- Align customer success coverage by ARR tier with quarterly executive reviews.
- Bundle usage add-ons with annual upgrades to compress CAC payback.
- Instrument adoption signals for success managers to trigger expansion moments.
Implementation checklist
Retention operations
Deploy invoice retries, Account Updater, and dunning dashboards within 30 days.
Expansion motions
Launch usage-based nudges, customer health alerts, and success-led playbooks.
Executive reviews
Institute quarterly business reviews for top ARR customers to surface upsells.
Forecast guardrails
Monitor funnel velocity and CAC payback monthly to detect drift versus model.
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Disclaimer
This calculator provides directional planning guidance. Actual results will vary based on pricing, plan mix, product usage, billing controls, and customer success execution. Please validate with your finance team and system-of-record data before committing budgets. Some links may be affiliate links; see our affiliate disclosure for details.